Macro Research & Portfolio Intelligence

US banks into easing — NIM, curve, and credit quality after the Sep cut, from our Hong Kong desk.

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Sep CPI/PPI and labor/services gate the late-Oct Fed path; Nasdaq leads 1M while LQD and gold stay soft—do not treat long IG as the cut proxy. Premium and consultations remain available when you need them.

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This week from the desk

Macro snapshot · Hong Kong time · week of 13–16 Oct 2026

Labor & services path gate

Into late October, claims, wages, and core services write the path—not another cut-call headline. Sep CPI (14 Oct), PPI/retail sales (15 Oct), and euro-area CPI (16 Oct) are the next hard prints.

Credit vs equity duration split

Nasdaq leads while LQD stays soft—easing-cycle equity beta is not long IG duration beta into auctions and term premium.

Cross-asset leaders

Nasdaq +5.4% 1M and Bitcoin +4.9% 1M lead; S&P +0.9% 1M. Soft: gold −7.6% 1M, Hang Seng −7.0% 1M, STOXX −6.9% 1M, long-bond proxy −6.2% 1M.

CPI/PPI/retail week and labor/services are the live path dials into 27–28 Oct. Keep quality/Nasdaq as core; front-end tactical on cooperative data; long IG and 30Y cautious on term premium; gold as the re-armed hawkish/fiscal hedge after the washout.

Labor & services path gate · full analysis Credit vs equity split · full analysis

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