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July CPI week, AI capex as a macro factor, and Asia–Europe leadership — from our Hong Kong desk.

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Weekly macro on July CPI as the soft-landing gate, AI capex as a multiples factor, and leaders like Hang Seng and gold. Premium and consultations remain available when you need them.

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This week from the desk

Macro snapshot · Hong Kong time · week of 11 Aug 2026

July CPI week ahead

The 12 Aug CPI cluster (YoY cons. 3.4%, MoM 0.1%, core MoM 0.2%) is the next gate for soft landing vs stagflation-lite. Soft duration persists (TLT −1.9% 1M, LQD −1.0% 1M).

AI capex as a macro factor

Hyperscaler spend is a growth-and-multiples factor, not just a tech trade. Nasdaq +1.6% 1M / +27.0% 1Y vs S&P +3.7% 1M / +22.3% 1Y—ROI proof still sets the equity risk premium.

Cross-asset leaders

Hang Seng +7.6% 1M and Gold +6.4% 1M lead; STOXX +6.0% 1M, Nikkei +4.7% 1M. Bitcoin +1.6% 1M; CSI 300 +0.8% 1M.

Into CPI week, keep soft-landing base with stagflation hedges (gold) and treat AI capex as a separate multiples factor. Prefer selective Asia/Europe leaders over blanket Nasdaq beta until inflation cooperates.

AI capex as a macro factor · full analysis US soft landing vs stagflation · full analysis

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